2 Mains Questions with Approach & Solutions for UPSC CSE: 12 August 2026

Q1. Explain the mechanism of the El Niño phenomenon and analyse its current impacts on weather patterns, agricultural productivity, and macro-economies across India and the world. How is global warming expected to alter the behaviour and future trajectory of El Niño events? (250 words / 15 Marks)

Approach to Understand & Attempt

Understanding the Question:

• Core Theme: El Niño – mechanism, impacts (weather, agriculture, economy), and future trajectory under global warming.

• Demand: Explain + Analyse + Project (global + India focus).

• Key Terms: ENSO, Walker Circulation, trade winds, SST anomalies, Clausius-Clapeyron, Modoki.

Approach & Structure:

1. Introduction (2-3 bullets)

• El Niño = warm phase of ENSO; central/eastern Pacific SST warming.

• Triggers global climatic disruptions; critical for India's monsoon-dependent economy.

2. Mechanism (3-4 bullets)

• Weakening trade winds → eastward heat shift.

• Suppressed upwelling off Peru → nutrient depletion.

• Walker Cell disruption → dry subsidence over Australia, Indonesia, South Asia.

3. Impacts (4-5 bullets)

• Global: Droughts (Africa, Australia); floods (Peru, US); crop damage; fisheries collapse.

• India: Erratic monsoon; Low-Pressure Systems suppressed; Kharif/Rabi yield stress.

• Economy: Food inflation; import bills; fiscal strain; hydro deficit.

4. Global Warming & Future (3-4 bullets)

• Extreme El Niño frequency may double (IPCC AR6).

• Clausius-Clapeyron → 7% more moisture/°C → intensified extremes.

• Central-Pacific Modoki events rising; traditional teleconnections shifting.

5. Conclusion (2 bullets)

• Need early warnings, climate-smart crops (millets), watershed management.

• Resilience building = key to buffer ENSO shocks.

Answer:

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere phenomenon marked by abnormal warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its periodic onset triggers cascading climatic, agricultural, and economic disruptions across the globe, including India, making its study critical for policy planning and disaster resilience.

Mechanism of El Niño

• Weakening Trade Winds: Easterly trade winds weaken or reverse into westerlies across the Pacific.

• Eastward Heat Redistribution: The warm pool shifts eastward toward South America, suppressing the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold waters along the Peruvian coast.

• Walker Cell Disruption: The ascending limb of the Walker Circulation shifts to the central/eastern Pacific, inducing descending dry air currents over Australia, Indonesia, and South Asia.

Current Impacts

• Weather: Global droughts in Southern Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia; heavy rains and floods in Peru, Ecuador and southern USA. In India, it often weakens the Southwest Monsoon, reduces low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal and intensifies heatwaves.

• Agriculture: Damages rain-fed crops worldwide (palm oil, wheat, sugarcane) and collapses Peruvian fisheries. In India, Kharif crops (rice, pulses, oilseeds) face moisture stress; warmer winters shorten the Rabi wheat and mustard growth window.

• Macro-economy: Drives food inflation (FAO cereal and oil indices), raises import bills, squeezes rural demand and increases fiscal pressure through higher farm subsidies and lower hydroelectric output.

Impact of Global Warming

• IPCC AR6 and WMO indicate that extreme El Niño events may become more frequent as surface oceans warm faster than deeper waters.

• Greater atmospheric moisture capacity intensifies drought–flood extremes (Clausius–Clapeyron relation).

• Teleconnections are shifting eastward (El Niño Modoki), producing non-traditional effects on the Indian monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole.

Climate resilience demands stronger early-warning systems, climate-smart crops (millets) and watershed management.

Q2. "The shift toward outcome-based budgeting and capital expenditure-led fiscal expansion in recent Union Budgets aims to boost long-term growth, yet structural rigidities in revenue spending persist." Critically examine the quality of public expenditure in India and suggest fiscal reforms to achieve balanced budget management. (15 Marks, 250 Words)

Approach to Understand & Attempt

Understanding the Question:

• Core Theme: Public expenditure quality – Capex vs. Revex; structural rigidities.

• Demand: Critically examine + suggest fiscal reforms for balanced budget management.

• Key Terms: Capex multiplier, Revenue rigidities, FRBM, Off-budget borrowings, Outcome Budgeting.

Approach & Structure:

1. Introduction (2 bullets)

• Quality of expenditure = Capex (asset-creating) vs. Revex (non-asset).

• Recent Budgets: capex-led growth + Outcome Budgeting.

2. Positive Developments (3 bullets)

• Capex multiplier: 2.45–3.25 vs. Revex 0.45–0.99 (RBI).

• Infrastructure building via PM Gati Shakti, NIP, interest-free loans.

• Off-budget borrowings brought on-balance sheet – fiscal integrity.

3. Structural Rigidities (3 bullets)

• Interest burden: ~20–24% of budget.

• Sticky subsidies (food, fertilizer, fuel) – volatile.

• State-level fiscal drag – power bailouts, welfare schemes crowd out Capex.

4. Fiscal Reforms (4 bullets)

• Independent Fiscal Council (NK Singh) – oversight, forecasts.

• Rationalize subsidies via DBT + Aadhaar.

• Zero-Based Budgeting + sunset clauses for legacy schemes.

• State debt anchored to GSDP (Article 293(3)).

5. Conclusion (2 bullets)

• Expand tax-to-GDP ratio.

• Convert rigid revenue liabilities into high-multiplier capital assets.

Answer:

Introduction

• Quality of public expenditure = efficiency of allocation between productive Capital Expenditure (Capex) and non-asset creating Revenue Expenditure (Revex).

• Recent Union Budgets have pivoted toward capex-led growth + Outcome Budgeting for tangible deliverables.

Positive Developments in Expenditure Quality

• Capex Multiplier Effect: RBI estimates Capex multiplier (~2.45–3.25) vs. Revex (~0.45–0.99); generates crowding-in of private investment.

• Infrastructure Capitalization: Sustained infusion under PM Gati Shakti, NIP, and interest-free loans to States for railways, highways, logistics.

• Transparency: Off-budget borrowings brought on-balance sheet under FRBM Act.

Structural Rigidities in Revenue Spending

• High Interest Burden: ~20–24% of budget consumed by interest payments on historical debt.

• Sticky Subsidies: Food, fertilizer, fuel subsidies remain volatile and un-fenced.

• State-Level Fiscal Drag: Rising committed expenditures (power bailouts, welfare schemes) crowd out state Capex.

Suggested Fiscal Reforms for Balanced Management

• Independent Fiscal Council: NK Singh Committee recommendation – autonomous body for budget forecasts, fiscal slippage monitoring.

• Rationalize Subsidies: Leverage DBT + Aadhaar for targeted, per-acre direct transfers; eliminate price distortions.

• Zero-Based & Outcome Budgeting: Enforce sunset clauses for legacy CSS; redirect funds to high-yield assets.

• State Debt Sustainability: Anchor state borrowing to GSDP targets under Article 293(3); tie Capex loans to structural reforms.

Conclusion

• Balance fiscal consolidation with growth by expanding tax-to-GDP ratio and converting rigid revenue liabilities into high-multiplier capital assets.